Last updated on March 8, 2006 10:30 PM EDT to account for that the cap has been announced to be around $102 million.
With 63 players under contract for 2006, the Patriots currently have $91.5 million committed to the 2006 salary cap. But that is before the advent of a number of factors that will increase or decrease New England’s cap number, such as future years of rookies’ contracts voiding, credits from the 2005 cap, cuts or renegotiations for several veteran players and tenders given to exclusive-rights free agents, restricted free agents and possibly a franchise free agent. This breakdown is an attempt to spell out roughly where the Patriots stand in regard to the 2006 cap and the cap effects of the various personnel moves the team could make. The numbers themselves are my estimates. I wish that I could say that a league source confirmed them but I can't.
As I mentioned, the Patriots’ current cap number for 2006 is $91,500,000. The following factors will change that:
Voided years — I am projecting that no Patriot had voided years in their contracts. By rule, the prorated signing bonuses from the voided years would have accelerated into 2005, and, after using the remaining 2005 cap space, would have carried over into 2006.
Street Free Agents - I do not expect the Patriots to sign any more street free agents at the rookie minimum of $235,000 but if they do, the cap cost would be zero due to the Rule of 51 (see below).
Restricted free agents — The Patriots do not have any RFAs
Franchise Free Agent — The Patriots did not use either a franchise tag or the transition tag this offseason.
Rule of 51 — In the offseason, the only base salaries or tenders that count against the team salary cap are those of the players with the 51 highest cap numbers on the team.
Minimum salary increase — Any player whose base salary specified in his contract is lower than the minimum salary for a player of his experience level is automatically given a raise to the minimum salary. For 2006, this situation does NOT apply to a Patriots player.
Here, then, is the breakdown of the Patriots’ team cap, with my projected effects of the factors that will change the total (rounded to the nearest ten thousand):
| Current cap committmentr | $91,500,000 |
| Added effect of voided years | $0 |
| Added RFA tenders | $0 |
| Added franchise/transition tenders | $0 |
| Added effect of minimum salary increase | $0 |
| Projected cap number before cuts/renegotiations | $91,500,000 |
I project that the Patriots' adjusted cap to be around $102 million. As you can see, based on my projections above, the Patriots would be UNDER the cap by 10.5 million if they do not cut any veterans or renegotiate any contracts. But there are plenty of opportunities to do both, thereby opening up millions of dollars under the cap. Here are some possible ways that the Pats could free up cap space. Please note that I am NOT advocating that the Patriots do all of these salary-cap manuevers.
Net-cap savings presumes that any release will take place in March/April
As you can see from above, the Pats could free up more than $25 million in cap room if they chose to do so. The Pats could free up more than $13 million in cap room WITHOUT releasing a single player.
When determining the cap savings from releasing players, keep in mind the Rule of 51. When a player from the top 51 is released or traded, the base salary of the player with the 52nd-highest cap number is added to the cap. For example, when Starks was released, his cap number was lowered by $3,606,720, although the actual team savings was only $3,371,720 because another player’s $235,000 base salary or tender would be added to the team cap. Using my projections, the first four players released or traded would result in a $235,000 salary being added.
The Rule of 51 also applies when free agents are signed. If the free agent’s cap number is among the 51-highest on the team, the base salary of the player whose cap number had been 51st-highest no longer counts against the cap. In most cases, then, the effect of signing a free agent will be $235,000 less than his cap number for 2006. To determine about how much can be spent on free agents, add $235,000 to the team’s cap room per free agent signed. So, if the Patriots enter the free-agency period $8,000,000 under the cap, they could sign one free agent for a 2006 cap number of $8,235,000, or two free agents for a combined cap number $8,470,000, or three for $8,705,000, or four for $8,940,000, and so on. I expect the Pats to sign one big-name free agent (most likely Adam) who will have a 2006 cap number around $2 million, two free agents (one of them to be - Steven Neal) who will have a 2006 cap number of $1.2 million, 3 free agents (most likely Andre Davis, Antrell Hawkins, and Michael Stone), who will have a cap number of $800,000 and 10 other free agents (Christin Fauria, Matt Chatham, Chad Scott, Ross Tucker) who will sign deals qualifying for the veteran minimum exception thereby having a cap number of $485,000. I suspect that the Patriots will sign 16 to 20 free agents who will have a 2006 gross cap hit of about $12 million but because of the rule of 51 will take up about $9.5 million.
At the time of the draft, the Patriots figure to have far more than 51 players signed or tendered. They will not need any additional cap room in order to draft, since all of the draft choices’ automatic rookie tenders of $235,000 will be below the 51st-highest cap number on the team. The Patriots’ 2006 rookie pool figures to be approximately $5,200,000, although the exact number will not be determined until after the draft. Of the rookie pool amount, only about $2.5 million will count against the cap, due to the Rule of 51. Somewhere between $10,000 and $25,000 of that will be used immediately after the draft to sign Undrafted Free Agents. The rest won’t be needed until July, when the draft choices are signed. The Patriots would also need to reserve at least $1,109,200 in order to pay for a 8-man practice squad and to pay for players, 52 and 53. In a Sports Illustrated article Pat Kirwan wrote in a cap-related article he wrote "that teams should keep a reserve pool of $750,000 to account for in-season replacements." Over the past couple of years the Patriots have used about a million dollars for in-season replacements. Please note that as Jocelyn Robichaud pointed out in an email: "The current cap status is calculated with the top 51 earners. On the other hand, not all of these players will make the team. Thus, as the team shrinks its roster to 53 players, it will create cap room unless it keeps all of its top earners. For example, let's say that Bethel Johnson ($478,000 in salary) does not make the team and is replaced by Bam Childress ($235,000 in salary). This would free $243,000 in cap room for the Patriots. If Mike Wright makes the team instead of Dan Klecko, that would create $150,000 in cap space. If Ryan Claridge makes the 53-man roster instead of Chad Brown, that would create $565,000 in cap space. With just 3 those roster decisions the Patriots could create over $900,000 in cap space when the rosters are cut down to 53 players.
| Calendar | |
| Today | $91,500,000 |
| After releasing Poole | $89,700,000 |
| After redoing Green's deal | $88,350,000 |
| After redoing McGinest's deal | $84,350,000 |
| Signing free agents (their own and others - net cap cost of $11,500,000) | $95,850,000 |
| Signing draft picks and UDFAs | $98,350,000 |
| After the Rochibaud roster squeeze effect | $97,050,000 |
| Practice squad and players 52 and 53 | $98,150,000 |
| InSeason replacements | $99,150,000 |
which leaves about a $1 million cushion to cover if my above estimates are way off as they are likely to be.
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